Recently, via various social media, I became involved in a discussion about Australian's NBN (National Broadband Network).
Some entity relating to the NBN rollout followed me on twitter. @NBNReview
This person's objective in their twitter profile is...
"I am seeking to create dialogue regarding the Australian NBN rollout. Hopefully we can get feedback from current users, doubters, pro'ers and others with a view"
So I decided I'd help out.
I pointed out, via a series of tweets, that one of the issues with the NBN is that many people, technical and non-technical alike, are of the opinion that it will be obsolete before they get it and that it is therefore a waste of money.
Quite quickly several followers of my tweets latched onto the word "obsolete" and protested vigorously with tweets to the effect of "It is optic fibre. Data travels at the speed of light. How can it ever be obsolete?"
NOTE: The speed of light is not constant. The maximum speed of light everyone assumes to be a constant is in fact quoted in the context of a vacuum i.e. space. When traveling through other materials it slows down, sometimes quite a lot. Here's a note on the note, there's no such thing as a vacuum either and, recent experiments at the Large Hadron Collider suggest that things can travel faster than the speed of light...so there :-p.
There's not much that gets my goat more than supposedly smart people talking in absolutes, except for maybe smart people talking in absolutes about the future (because we all know that is readily and accurately predicted right!?).
NOTE 2: For fun, take a quick look at some previous predictions about technology and the future - top-30-failed-technology-predictions. The arrogance of scientists and technologists is often quite staggering.
Before we even touch on fibre optics being the ultimate end game in communications technology, let's just look at the construction of the NBN itself.
Australia is spending $36 billion on the NBN at today's estimates. It will surely cost way more by the time it is "done". NB: The Government, read the taxpayer", is kicking in $662 million as a starter. The rest will magically appear from the NBNCo, customers and large loans (it seems).
According to the NBNCo map I've included here, 7% of the NBN will be made up of wireless and satellite technologies. Even to non-technical folk it is obvious that these technologies are eminently susceptible to obsolescence.
Of the $36 billion, this means $2.52 billion worth of gear is actually going to be obsolete very fast.
Now, still assuming that the optic fibre is the best we can ever do as far as moving data from place to place is concerned, the gear at each end of the fibre is quite some way from reaching the theoretical maximum operating speeds of the fibres themselves.
I can't find a breakdown of the cost of the fibre rollout vs the exchange infrastructure cost, and I won't hazzard a guess, but the point is that there's more stuff in the project that can and will be obsolete sooner rather than later.
Let's look at the physical rollout of the fibre itself, not its properties just yet.
Let's say that in 12 years time when the NBN is up and running <#coughbullshit> that one of the fibres gets damaged for some reason. It may be fire (they aren't all going underground by a long way) or a flood or an Earthquake. What do you think the chances are that they replace the damaged fibre with EXACTLY the same fibre? Why do you think that may be IF the fibre we have right now IS the best we can do EVER?
This isn't science. It is pragmatic, gut based experience. 12 years is a long time in technology to assume, no KNOW, that no improvement can or will be made.
So, now, to the fibre itself. If you Google for optic fibre images you'll find that there's not just one type of fibre. There's lots. I wonder why that would be? Could it be that they have varying qualities, attributes and performance? So, for a politically driven project, what do you think the chance is of our team picking the best one as opposed to, oh I dunno, the cheapest?
Bearing in mind the note above about the speed of light, do you think the quality of the fibre itself has an impact on its life and carrying capacity? NAH! No room for improvement there (FFS).
Oh yes, and the politics of the NBN. I have previously mentioned my opinion on politicians getting involved with technology let alone anything they don't comprehend at any level.
If a politician can stuff up the NBN then they surely will somehow. We've already seen delays, arguments, threats to "pull it all down if we get in". The point is, the NBN could be politically obsolete on a whim and that could possibly render the project untenable or just plain dead.
Did I mention GFC 2.0 yet?
The NBN rollout seems to be getting longer and longer. In one 10 minute presentation by the NBN Co themselves it went from 7 years to 10 years. I don't know what they are currently saying.
10 years is potentially 3 different governments. In 10 years most of us will have had between 2 and 5 new computers and 2 to 4 new cars. We have been programmed to expect change and obsolescence from our technology. Why wouldn't we expect a major technological project over that time period to be subject to the same rate of obsolescence?
NOTE 3: It was suggested to me in the twitterverse that the NBN should be considered a major engineering project and not just a technological project. This would help people understand the time scale i.e. because we are happy to see bridges, Opera houses, railways, roads etc. take those time-frames to deliver.
So, I've just scratched the surface on reasons and opinions as to why it is valid to think that the NBN may be obsolete before most of us get our hands on it.
An opinion, in of itself, is a valid thing. It is not enough just to say "they are wrong" (as was said to me in the twitterverse when I pointed out said opinions) and think that makes the opinion go away.
If the NBNCo and the Government want to know why there are doubters and why they are doubting then they need to listen and communicate better.
I have never said I don't want the NBN. I do, oh please I do! Please, please, please...
What I have said is that I have doubts that it won't be a colossal waste of money and that what we get won't be up to scratch by the time most of us get it.
Oh, and here's an absolute for you, I can guarantee that whatever happens it will be different to anything any of us have predicted ;-)
Some entity relating to the NBN rollout followed me on twitter. @NBNReview
This person's objective in their twitter profile is...
"I am seeking to create dialogue regarding the Australian NBN rollout. Hopefully we can get feedback from current users, doubters, pro'ers and others with a view"
So I decided I'd help out.
I pointed out, via a series of tweets, that one of the issues with the NBN is that many people, technical and non-technical alike, are of the opinion that it will be obsolete before they get it and that it is therefore a waste of money.
Quite quickly several followers of my tweets latched onto the word "obsolete" and protested vigorously with tweets to the effect of "It is optic fibre. Data travels at the speed of light. How can it ever be obsolete?"
NOTE: The speed of light is not constant. The maximum speed of light everyone assumes to be a constant is in fact quoted in the context of a vacuum i.e. space. When traveling through other materials it slows down, sometimes quite a lot. Here's a note on the note, there's no such thing as a vacuum either and, recent experiments at the Large Hadron Collider suggest that things can travel faster than the speed of light...so there :-p.
There's not much that gets my goat more than supposedly smart people talking in absolutes, except for maybe smart people talking in absolutes about the future (because we all know that is readily and accurately predicted right!?).
NOTE 2: For fun, take a quick look at some previous predictions about technology and the future - top-30-failed-technology-predictions. The arrogance of scientists and technologists is often quite staggering.
- “There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will.” — Albert Einstein, 1932
Before we even touch on fibre optics being the ultimate end game in communications technology, let's just look at the construction of the NBN itself.
Australia is spending $36 billion on the NBN at today's estimates. It will surely cost way more by the time it is "done". NB: The Government, read the taxpayer", is kicking in $662 million as a starter. The rest will magically appear from the NBNCo, customers and large loans (it seems).
According to the NBNCo map I've included here, 7% of the NBN will be made up of wireless and satellite technologies. Even to non-technical folk it is obvious that these technologies are eminently susceptible to obsolescence.
Of the $36 billion, this means $2.52 billion worth of gear is actually going to be obsolete very fast.
Now, still assuming that the optic fibre is the best we can ever do as far as moving data from place to place is concerned, the gear at each end of the fibre is quite some way from reaching the theoretical maximum operating speeds of the fibres themselves.
Let's look at the physical rollout of the fibre itself, not its properties just yet.
Let's say that in 12 years time when the NBN is up and running <#coughbullshit> that one of the fibres gets damaged for some reason. It may be fire (they aren't all going underground by a long way) or a flood or an Earthquake. What do you think the chances are that they replace the damaged fibre with EXACTLY the same fibre? Why do you think that may be IF the fibre we have right now IS the best we can do EVER?
This isn't science. It is pragmatic, gut based experience. 12 years is a long time in technology to assume, no KNOW, that no improvement can or will be made.
So, now, to the fibre itself. If you Google for optic fibre images you'll find that there's not just one type of fibre. There's lots. I wonder why that would be? Could it be that they have varying qualities, attributes and performance? So, for a politically driven project, what do you think the chance is of our team picking the best one as opposed to, oh I dunno, the cheapest?
Bearing in mind the note above about the speed of light, do you think the quality of the fibre itself has an impact on its life and carrying capacity?
Oh yes, and the politics of the NBN. I have previously mentioned my opinion on politicians getting involved with technology let alone anything they don't comprehend at any level.
If a politician can stuff up the NBN then they surely will somehow. We've already seen delays, arguments, threats to "pull it all down if we get in". The point is, the NBN could be politically obsolete on a whim and that could possibly render the project untenable or just plain dead.
Did I mention GFC 2.0 yet?
The NBN rollout seems to be getting longer and longer. In one 10 minute presentation by the NBN Co themselves it went from 7 years to 10 years. I don't know what they are currently saying.
10 years is potentially 3 different governments. In 10 years most of us will have had between 2 and 5 new computers and 2 to 4 new cars. We have been programmed to expect change and obsolescence from our technology. Why wouldn't we expect a major technological project over that time period to be subject to the same rate of obsolescence?
NOTE 3: It was suggested to me in the twitterverse that the NBN should be considered a major engineering project and not just a technological project. This would help people understand the time scale i.e. because we are happy to see bridges, Opera houses, railways, roads etc. take those time-frames to deliver.
So, I've just scratched the surface on reasons and opinions as to why it is valid to think that the NBN may be obsolete before most of us get our hands on it.
An opinion, in of itself, is a valid thing. It is not enough just to say "they are wrong" (as was said to me in the twitterverse when I pointed out said opinions) and think that makes the opinion go away.
If the NBNCo and the Government want to know why there are doubters and why they are doubting then they need to listen and communicate better.
I have never said I don't want the NBN. I do, oh please I do! Please, please, please...
What I have said is that I have doubts that it won't be a colossal waste of money and that what we get won't be up to scratch by the time most of us get it.
Oh, and here's an absolute for you, I can guarantee that whatever happens it will be different to anything any of us have predicted ;-)
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